EUR/USD Forecast
This Week

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1601, with a bullish bias as the EMA20 remains above the EMA50. Last week, the pair likely found support near 1.1574 and faced resistance at 1.1667. The RSI(14) at 35.6 suggests the pair is near oversold territory, hinting at a potential bounce, while a flat MACD indicates indecision. For Indian traders, this pair matters as EUR/USD movements influence EUR/INR, which is derived from the euro and rupee. A stronger euro against the dollar can make European imports costlier for India, impacting sectors like machinery and chemicals. Sentiment is cautiously optimistic, but traders should watch for volatility from upcoming events, especially the US FOMC and RBI minutes, which could sway both EUR/USD and USD/INR.

This week, three key drivers will shape EUR/USD and its impact on Indian markets. First, the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday at 14:00 IST will provide insights into India's monetary policy stance, influencing USD/INR and indirectly EUR/USD via cross-currency flows. Second, the US FOMC Statement on Wednesday at 18:00 IST is critical; any hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar, pressuring EUR/USD and affecting Indian exporters' competitiveness. Third, US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and PMI Flash on Friday will offer clues on US economic health, impacting global risk sentiment. For Indian traders, these events also affect FII flows and MCX gold prices, as euro-dollar dynamics often correlate with commodity and currency markets.

The immediate support for EUR/USD lies at 1.1574, a level that has recently held declines. If this support breaks, the pair could slide towards the lower end of the weekly range at 1.1548, potentially triggering further selling. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.1667, with the weekly high at 1.1654 just below it. A break above 1.1667 would confirm the bullish bias and open the door for a move towards 1.1700. Indian traders should monitor these levels closely, as a breach could influence EUR/INR and hedging decisions for importers and exporters.

The weekly outlook for EUR/USD is cautiously bullish, given the EMA20 above EMA50 and the oversold RSI. However, the flat MACD suggests limited momentum, so range-bound trading between 1.1548 and 1.1654 is possible. Key events, especially the US FOMC on Wednesday, could trigger volatility. If the Fed signals a dovish stance, EUR/USD may test resistance at 1.1667; a hawkish surprise could push it towards support at 1.1574. Indian traders should watch the RBI minutes for USD/INR cues and monitor US jobless claims and PMI data for global sentiment. A breakout above 1.1667 or below 1.1574 will set the tone for the next directional move.