USD/INR Forecast
This Week

USD/INR closed the week near 96.30, holding a bullish bias after recovering from the lower end of the 95.77–96.83 range. The pair has been supported by persistent dollar demand from importers and a cautious tone ahead of the RBI MPC minutes. Momentum indicators are constructive: RSI(14) at 58.4 suggests room for further upside without being overbought, while MACD remains above its signal line and the 20-day EMA sits above the 50-day EMA. The rupee has also faced mild pressure from FII outflows in equities and rising crude oil prices, which weigh on India's current account deficit. Sentiment remains dollar-positive, but the RBI's presence near 96.50–96.80 continues to cap aggressive rallies. Traders are now focused on the RBI minutes and the US FOMC statement for the next directional trigger.

The most important India-specific driver this week is the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday at 14:00 IST. Markets will parse the tone for any hints on intervention strategy or tolerance for a weaker rupee. The RBI has historically defended levels near 96.50–96.80 to curb imported inflation, and any hawkish surprise could temporarily support the INR. Second, FII flows remain critical: continued outflows from Indian equities would add to dollar demand, pressuring the rupee toward 96.83. Third, the US FOMC statement on Wednesday will drive global dollar direction; a hawkish Fed would lift USD/INR, while a dovish tilt could offer the rupee relief. Additionally, import demand from oil marketing companies and gold traders ahead of the festive season is a seasonal factor to monitor, as it typically creates a natural bid for dollars.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 95.64, which marks the lower end of last week's range and a level where importers have previously stepped in. A break below 95.64 would signal a shift in momentum, potentially opening the door to 95.20–95.30, though the RBI may not intervene aggressively at that level. On the upside, resistance at 96.30 has already been tested and breached intraday; a sustained close above this level would confirm the bullish bias and target 96.83, the upper end of the weekly range. Beyond 96.83, the RBI is likely to increase dollar sales to prevent a sharp depreciation, making 97.00 a psychological ceiling in the near term.

The directional bias remains bullish for USD/INR, with the pair likely to trade between 95.77 and 96.83. The RBI MPC Minutes on Monday could set the tone; a neutral-to-hawkish RBI may cap gains, but any hint of tolerance for rupee weakness could push the pair toward 96.83. The US FOMC statement on Wednesday is the week's biggest risk event; a hawkish Fed would strengthen the dollar broadly and lift USD/INR above 96.30, while a dovish surprise could see a pullback to 95.80–95.90. US jobless claims on Thursday and PMI flash on Friday will provide secondary cues. Traders should watch the 96.30 resistance and 95.64 support closely. A break above 96.83 would require RBI intervention to contain, while a drop below 95.64 would shift the bias to neutral.