MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is trading at ₹135,441 per 10 grams, holding above its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, which confirms a bullish structural bias. Last week, prices were driven by a softer dollar and expectations of a dovish RBI, though the weekly range of ₹132,735 to ₹138,148 shows volatility. The RSI at 34.5 is near oversold territory, suggesting limited downside, while MACD is flat, indicating indecision. Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as Indian traders eye the upcoming US FOMC and RBI minutes. The metal has been supported by steady physical demand ahead of the festive season, but a stronger rupee could cap gains. Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase with a bullish undertone.

This week, three macro factors will dominate MCX Gold. First, the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday will provide clues on interest rate trajectory and USD/INR direction; a hawkish tone could strengthen the rupee and pressure gold. Second, the US FOMC Statement on Wednesday is critical for global gold prices via XAU/USD; any hint of rate cuts would boost bullion. Third, US Initial Jobless Claims and PMI Flash data will influence dollar strength. India-specific, the ~15% import duty keeps domestic prices elevated, while festive demand from Diwali and Akshaya Tritiya remains a seasonal tailwind. RBI gold reserves and FII flows into MCX also matter, but global cues will likely overshadow local factors this week.

Immediate support is seen at ₹133,571, which aligns with the lower end of the weekly range and the 20-day EMA. A break below this level could trigger a slide toward ₹132,735, the weekly low, as stop-losses get hit. On the upside, resistance at ₹138,825 is the key hurdle; a sustained break above this level would open the door to ₹140,000 and beyond, reaffirming the bullish trend. The RSI near 34.5 suggests that the metal is closer to support than resistance, so traders should watch for a bounce from ₹133,571. If resistance fails, expect accelerated buying.

The weekly outlook for MCX Gold is cautiously bullish, with a bias to buy on dips near support at ₹133,571. The EMA20 above EMA50 and oversold RSI support a rebound, but the flat MACD and upcoming high-impact events warrant caution. The US FOMC on Wednesday is the biggest risk; a dovish outcome could push gold toward ₹138,825, while a hawkish surprise might test ₹132,735. Domestically, RBI minutes on Monday could influence USD/INR, and festive demand provides a floor. Traders should monitor the ₹133,571–₹138,825 range for breakout signals. A close above ₹138,825 would confirm upside, while a break below ₹133,571 would negate the bullish view. Expect volatility around event times.