MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is trading at ₹128,870 per 10 grams, after a week that saw prices retreat from higher levels. The bearish bias is reinforced by technical indicators: RSI(14) at 30.6 suggests oversold conditions but remains below the neutral 50 mark, while MACD is below its signal line, and the 20-day EMA is under the 50-day EMA. The weekly range is estimated between ₹125,565 and ₹132,174. Sentiment has been weighed down by a firm US dollar and rising US bond yields, which pressured gold globally. In India, the rupee's movement against the dollar and domestic demand dynamics are also in play. With key events like the RBI MPC minutes and US FOMC statement this week, volatility is likely to persist, keeping traders cautious.

This week, three macro factors will dominate MCX Gold. First, the RBI MPC minutes on Monday will provide clues on the rupee's trajectory; a hawkish tone could strengthen the rupee, making gold cheaper in INR terms. Second, the US FOMC statement on Wednesday is critical for dollar direction and global gold prices; any hawkish surprise could extend the bearish trend. Third, US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and PMI Flash on Friday will influence USD/INR and overall risk sentiment. India-specific, the ~15% import duty continues to support domestic prices, but festive demand is currently subdued as Diwali and Akshaya Tritiya are months away. RBI's gold reserves remain a long-term positive, but near-term focus is on currency and global cues.

The immediate support level is at ₹128,870, which coincides with the current rate. A break below this could trigger a slide towards the lower end of the weekly range at ₹125,565, where some buying interest may emerge. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹133,001; a sustained break above this level would negate the bearish bias and could open the door for a move towards ₹132,174 or higher. Given the oversold RSI, a bounce from support is possible, but the overall trend remains down as long as price stays below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. Traders should watch these levels closely for potential reversals.

The weekly outlook for MCX Gold remains bearish, with the metal likely to test support at ₹128,870. If this level breaks, the next target is ₹125,565. However, with RSI at 30.6, a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out, especially if the US FOMC statement is less hawkish than expected. Key events to monitor include the RBI MPC minutes on Monday, US FOMC on Wednesday, and US jobless claims and PMI data later in the week. These will drive USD/INR and global gold prices. A close above ₹133,001 would signal a bullish reversal, but that seems unlikely given current momentum. Indian traders should also watch for any updates on import duty or RBI policy that could impact domestic prices.