MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is trading at ₹119,022 per 10g, near the lower end of its weekly range of ₹116,277–₹121,768, with a bearish bias. The metal has come under pressure as a firm dollar and elevated US yields weigh on bullion. Technically, the picture is weak: RSI(14) at 25.1 is deep in oversold territory, yet MACD remains below its signal line, and price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, confirming downward momentum. Sentiment is cautious ahead of key central bank events. Domestically, the rupee's movement and import duty considerations add layers of complexity for Indian traders. The recent slide has also been accompanied by subdued physical demand, though festive buying could emerge at lower levels. Overall, the market is in a corrective phase, and traders are watching whether the oversold RSI triggers a bounce or if bearish fundamentals prevail.

This week, three macro factors will dominate MCX Gold's direction. First, the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday will be scrutinized for cues on the rupee and interest rate trajectory; a hawkish tone could strengthen the USD/INR, supporting gold prices in rupee terms. Second, the US FOMC Statement on Wednesday is critical for global gold; any hawkish surprise could push XAU/USD lower, while a dovish tilt might spark a rebound. Third, US Initial Jobless Claims and PMI Flash data will shape dollar expectations. India-specific, the ~15% import duty remains a structural factor, but near-term focus is on rupee volatility and whether physical demand picks up at these lower prices. Festive demand is not imminent, but seasonal buying patterns suggest support may emerge as prices approach the lower end of the range.

The immediate support is at the current rate of ₹119,022, which also marks the lower bound of the recent consolidation. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward the weekly low of ₹116,277, where some buying interest may emerge. On the upside, resistance is at ₹122,454, a level that has capped gains recently. A close above this resistance would signal a potential reversal of the bearish trend and could open the door to the upper end of the weekly range at ₹121,768. However, given the bearish technical setup, rallies are likely to be sold into unless a catalyst triggers a breakout. Traders should watch these levels closely for confirmation of directional moves.

The weekly outlook for MCX Gold is bearish, with the metal likely to test lower support levels. The combination of a sub-30 RSI and bearish MACD suggests that despite oversold conditions, downward momentum remains intact. Key events, especially the FOMC statement, could dictate volatility. A hawkish Fed would likely strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold toward ₹116,277. Conversely, a dovish surprise could lift prices toward resistance at ₹122,454. Domestically, RBI minutes and USD/INR fluctuations will influence MCX prices. Traders should monitor the ₹119,022 support and ₹122,454 resistance for breakout signals. Given the bearish bias, a cautious approach is warranted, with attention to risk management around event risks.